The Decision-Making Playbook: Building Mental Models for Players
Building a Framework for Autonomous Decision-Making
Mental Models as Tools for Game Situations
Baseball is a dynamic game where situations can change in an instant. To succeed, players need more than just instinct — they need mental models — frameworks that allow them to quickly process information and make the right call. These models evolve over time, often starting with simple, conservative strategies and becoming more complex as players face new challenges. Coaches are vital in this process, helping players refine and adapt their mental models so they can stay ahead of the game, even as the dynamics shift in real-time. Think of mental models as a guiding structure that helps players make sense of on-field situations and adjust their gameplay accordingly.
An insightful way to understand how players apply their mental models is by asking them about the decisions they made in specific situations. Over the past several seasons, I’ve enjoyed asking players what they were paying attention to when they made a particular decision. Hearing them articulate the factors they considered provides valuable insights into the mental models they rely on in the game. This process of reflection can reveal not only the obvious factors — such as physical aspects of the game — but also gaps in their decision-making that might otherwise go unnoticed. For example, players might focus heavily on physical factors like an outfielder’s position or the speed of the ball coming off the bat, while completely overlooking situational factors like the score, number of outs, or the inning. I’ve found that players often overinvest in physical factors, while underestimating or overlooking situational elements that are crucial to effective decision-making.
In the heat of the game, players need mental models that help them make quick, context-driven decisions. Think of these models as “presets” — mental shortcuts that guide a player’s approach based on the situation at hand. For instance, in a high-leverage moment on the bases, a player might recognize that the game context calls for more aggressive decisions, such as taking a larger lead or attempting a risky steal. While players’ instincts are valuable, our goal as coaches is to refine those instincts, ensuring they’re informed by more than just the immediate physical cues of the game. Players should learn to process the full context of each situation — score, inning, outs, and other situational factors — so that their decisions are deliberate and well-rounded, not purely reactive.
Dynamic Adaptability: Adjusting the Mental Model Based on the Situation
While mental models help players make decisions quickly, the ability to adapt those models in real-time is equally crucial. Baseball is unpredictable, and situations on the field can change in an instant. Players must recognize when to adjust their approach, whether it’s altering their base-running strategy based on the pitcher’s movements or adjusting their aggression in the field to match the evolving game situation.
The best players know when to push the pedal and when to ease off, adjusting their play to the shifting dynamics of the game. They can read the flow of the game and adapt their style accordingly, remaining effective no matter how the situation changes. What truly sets the best apart is their ability to quickly identify the most critical factor in any given moment and act on it without hesitation. Many coaches and players believe that the more information they can recall about a situation, the better their understanding. While this may hold some truth, the best players are those who can pinpoint the most important lever to pull in any given situation — and they do so with remarkable speed and precision.
As players progress in their development, transitioning from a general understanding of the game to more critical, strategic thinking is essential. One of the biggest challenges they face, particularly as they climb through the minor leagues, is the increased pressure to analyze how different game situations interact with each other. This shift requires players not only to refine their mental models but also to understand and prioritize the right factors in real-time — an often difficult task.
I’ve come to see baseball as a game defined by its constantly shifting situations. Every pitch, every ball in play, subtly alters the dynamics of the game. While many players tend to focus primarily on scoring as the key shift, this way of thinking — though not entirely wrong — lacks the depth required at the highest level. The best players recognize that the true game lies in how each piece moves, and how those small changes can impact their decisions, actions, and ultimately, their success.
When coaches observe a player’s decision-making in the game, they often ask, “Why didn’t they make that play?” or “Why did they make that decision?” Encouraging players to reflect on their choices can uncover gaps in their mental models — perhaps they were focused on the wrong aspect of the situation or failed to consider more critical contextual factors. Establishing ongoing conversations about game decisions is one of the most valuable tools coaches have for refining a player’s mental model and helping them adjust their approach in real-time.
Scenario-Based Learning: Practicing the Mental Model
Building on this process, scenario-based learning offers a powerful method to further develop these mental models. By simulating game situations in a controlled environment, players can practice decision-making without the immediate pressure of a live game. This allows them to test and refine their mental models in varied contexts, strengthening their ability to make quick, accurate decisions and improving their adaptability to the unpredictable nature of baseball. Repeated exposure to these scenarios helps players internalize the skills they need to handle real-game situations more effectively.
While I won’t dive into the specifics of how to implement a system for developing mental models, it’s essential that every organization and team prioritize this step. At its core, reviewing situations provides players with valuable exposure to various game scenarios without wasting time on the field or disrupting the team’s schedule. This method allows players to refine their mental models by understanding the key factors in each context. The goal is for players to recognize patterns and internalize their mental models for any given situation. As these models become embedded in their intuition, players can react quickly and effectively during games without overthinking.
Ultimately, the goal is to help players think quickly under the pressures of gameplay, boosting their confidence in their decisions and the process they’re using. With these skills, players will be able to make better decisions and, ultimately, take control of the game by reading and reacting to it — rather than simply executing pre-planned plays or relying on simplified models based on score or inning.
A mental model playbook doesn’t just guide players; it grows with them. As players mature and encounter new situations, they can update their models to incorporate lessons learned from practice, games, or watching others. This ongoing evolution of mental models is what truly sets high-performing players apart from the rest.
By fostering this growth, teams don’t just develop skilled players — they build adaptable, confident decision-makers who can thrive in any situation.
