Leveraging Counts
When it comes to different counts there are great differences between strikes and balls depending on the situation that a hitter or pitcher is in. Some counts have largely different levers that can be pulled that change the outcomes that hitters are going to be facing. Balls and Strikes are the lifeblood of each and every At Bat. Examining the differences in each of the 12 situations shouldn’t be something that we just overlook.
Before we get into the analysis I think it is worth stating that we know without really diving too deep that early in counts the leverage of each count changes slights, while the deeper hitters and pitchers get into each confrontation the larger the jumps are in the advantages of each player. So 0–0 pitches have a much smaller effect on the overall At Bat than say a 2–2 or 3–2 pitch. Knowing this we can start to formula a plan for our hitters by taking some of the information and putting it into action.
The plan for this write up will focus on the overall analysis and some simple suggestions that coaches could implement with their players. Each table will show the average gain or loss for a ball or a strike in each count. I have also added a Difference column which will show the overall difference between the two. Lets just take one example before digging into the whole table.
We can see in the table below we have a 0–0 Count. For each Ball that a hitter takes he increases his average standing in the count 40 wOBA Points, while Strikes ‘cost’ the player 49 wOBA Points. Which is a difference of almost 90 wOBA points in total.
89 wOBA points is actually the lowest swing out of all counts. This makes sense logically before even digging into the whole table. 0–0 counts shift the balance of power in the count slightly in the favor of hitters and pitches. But because we don’t have a lot of pitches to go off of yet in the At Bat we shouldn’t see dramatic swings.
We can look at this another way in terms of the difference. When we see the difference in the count we should view this as the leverage in each situations. So an 0–0 count is the lowest leverage situations for hitters. While still important how early the count in the At Bat this situation comes in is important to note.
When we separate out 3–2 counts we get a much closer look at the real differences.
We can see much smaller changes when we separate out the 3–2 count. We can see that yes we still see larger jumps as we move through the count but that these jumps
Let us look at the information:
We can see that comparatively 3–2 counts should and do have the largest differences because of the stakes in these counts. Each count prior is really a tooth and nail fight in a lot of circumstances. If we remove 3–2 from the equation we can start to see how the swings are much more gradual than what we see above.
Although the stakes of each count are higher as we move through the at bat we also need to realize that bad decisions in these lower level situations effect us later on in the count. Overall we should be looking at each count as a situation where hitters should be consistently looking to improve their standing in the count. As important as early counts are we shouldn’t ignore higher leverage situations for hitters.
When is contact rewarded?
We can also examine when it is best for hitters to put the ball into play. We saw before that hitters the deeper they get into each out the higher the leverage is. We can see the differences in wOBA for different counts when the ball is hit into play. The threat of the walk is something that shouldn’t be ignored. Walks are good. The more you walk the more your team has the ability to score. So this is not an ad for never swing when you are up, but rather a slight nod toward a more patient approach when hitters have the count in their favor.
Almost universally when a hitter gets down it might be best for them to have bat to ball skills in order to help them improve their standing. Striking out through it is acceptable in today’s game does inevitably lead to a wOBA of .000 while balls that are hit into play have the chance of becoming hits in some way shape or form. What we see below is that being able to put the baseball into play when the hitter in down in the count is a good way to gain value.
Overall having bat to ball skills in counts hitters are down in should be something that we focus on while helping players to gain a more balanced, and patient approach when they are ahead is a worthwhile venture.
Implementation
Attaching a count to practice situations shouldn’t be overlooked. When we can we should be putting players into situations where they recognize when they have and don’t have the advantage in the count. Which counts are higher leverage, and which are relatively lower. Leveraging counts and approach isn’t something that needs to be forced upon players but I think that it is a situation where we need them to realize the differences in their standing.
Making it so that players are forced into situations to make decisions based upon their standing is a good thing. Imprinting upon them some of these basic ideas is probably best while not overwhelming them with small details.
Coaches have moved toward situations where they are consistently putting players in more life like situations and adding counts to these situations shouldn’t be disregarded. Knowing when and where we can take gambles or be more conservative in different game situations should help to improve players abilities.
