Developing Hitting Game Plans Using Probability and Expected Outcomes
When looking at building game plans for hitters we want to be examining the hitter through a wide lens. I think that using the coaches eye and blending that we as many data sources as possible should be the goal. I don’t think that it should be one piece of information or technology or one input from the human mind. I want to add another source of information to the conversation today by adding the idea of Expected Outcomes. We will examine a couple different plots and look at what they are telling us about our hitters potentially.
Before we get into the conversation lets talk first about why we should be using this type of information.
Process For Success
We all know that in Baseball failure is bound to occur on a regular basis. What we should be looking to create is a process for success for our players. Where they are not so reliant on the results to dictate success or failure but rather look at what could have happened from their actions.
The main idea that is conveyed with any of these plots is that if you follow what is expected then the “most likely” scenario is success. If we are continuously approaching the process of what players are doing then we can start to hammer home the idea of what they did not the result.
Things players can control to some degree include:
Types of pitches they swing at. Locations of those pitches. Potential Quality of Contact. Swing Decisions in general.
They can no control to a certain degree:
Where the ball is hit. Placement of fielders. Pitches/locations that the pitcher will throw. Etc. The list can be very extensive if thought through extensively.
The main point here is that if we help guide players to where they are most likely to be successful then after enough attempts we are more likely to have positive outcomes.
Lets take an example from a plot:
We can see that Chavis has a really easy to plot to read. We can clearly see where we would expect him to have the most success. What we can start to do is narrow in on where players have the highest chances of doing damage. So we can start to shift swing decisions toward this area in darker red. Or we begin to formulate programs around getting players to swing in these areas more often. If we are able to get players swinging and making contact in this red area then we are playing to the most likely scenario for success.
When we start to plan around what players do well we can see that success is now based upon swinging at pitches in these areas. If we start to measure this and present information of where players are swinging vs. where we would expect them to have success we start to build systems around what we want.
But as I understand we will not always be able to zone in on one area and stick to our plan. We understand that xEV (Expected Exit Velocity) shouldn’t be the only thing that we examine. Which leads us to our next plot.
Swing And Miss Areas
As players begin to work in the real games and start to get into less than ideal counts and situation that might favor the pitchers. We as coaches can start to look at areas that we see a higher chance of swing and miss for a player like Chavis. Let us look at the plot below:
So again we see a clear difference in areas that Chavis is more likely to make contact on against areas that would more likely lead to contact. Understanding that Chavis has a tendency to swing and miss at balls low and away from him and at the top of the zone should lead us to a better understanding of what he is doing as a hitter.
Knowing where a hitter is going to swing and miss leads us to a fork in the road. We can either start to work with the hitter to 1. Eliminate those swings or 2. Build up their skill to be able to combat this weaknesses. How we go about this can lead us in multiple directions. Depending on the route that we take as coaches we need to make a decision based off the information and start to guide players to make better decisions.
Expected outcomes are only another piece of the model that we should include into our coaching. It gives us an IDEA of what is going to happen vs. describing what has happened in the past. Both are important to guiding our coaching and decision making but we shouldn’t be looking at just including one and not the other.
So as we gain more information about where hitters are having success we should start to mold different areas in which players should be looking to swing. We need to move beyond just game planning with hitters about what they have done in the past. We need to build plans that focus on taking advantage of areas of the strike zone that we know they are successful in and that is what these plots aim to help coaches with.
